The Relationship between Historical Grandet and the Future Greatness
Given to the humiliating history of last two centuries，Chinese people always make efforts to build a powerful China．In the recent debate over the rise of China，some grass－root scholars argue that since China had achieved grandeur in ancient times， Chinese people are likely to lead the world again．The logic seems plausible，but is there any causal relationship between historical grandeur and China’s future greatness?
Personally，I do not agree with this opinion．Firstly，the argument assumes that they can predict the future by finding evidence in the course of history．This mistake was criticized by Karl Popper in his influential book The Open Society and Its Enemies．In the book，he lenientlessly attacks ’historicism’，which means an approach to make historical predictions by discovering the patterns that underlie the evolutionof history．In other words，precedent can not be used to explain what will happen in the future．In China’s case，undoubtedly，it reached the historical peak in Tang Dynasty．At that time，China was preponderant inthe world，for no countries could successfully challenge its superiority．Now consider the world situationat that time．The world was separated by oceans，mountains，and deserts，for the communications means wereso retarded that China enjoyed a relatively safe environment except the threats from neighboring countries．Nowadays，is it reasonable to predict that China’s greatness in the future is based on Tang Dynasty’s preponderance when the world is becoming smaller and more intermingled?
Secondly，indicative of finding evidence in the course of history is China’s current weakness．Though China has surpassed Germany as the third largest economy，its per capita income still ranks in the developingcountry category．There is still a wide gap between China and the developed countries in terms of science and technology，education，military strength，and etc．Given that China is still a developing country， it is understandable that we can gain inspiration from the historical grandeur，but we can not use it as evidence to support our goodwill． What matters a great China in the future is the efforts we are making atpresent.
In conclusion，we can see that there is no causal relationship between China’s grand history and its future．Historical grandeur can only serve as inspiration to urge us to make more efforts．As one proverb goes，many hands make light work．Chinese people will build a great nation in the future with combined efforts.